On the global scale, mean annual surface temperature has increased over the past century by 0.6 0 C (IPCC 2001). Various models have been developed to assess climate change impact at the global and regional level. Temperature and precipitation trends differ at the local level and have differing impact. Also, various studies have been done in different parts of the world for detecting climate trends and changes. Some of these have shown significant trends (Capodici et al., 2008; Feidas et al., 2007; Gemmer et al. 2004). However, very limited work has been conducted at the national level especially on time series analysis. (Dankers , Hiederer, 2008)
Based on the available information it was reported that the surface average temperature in Nepal is rising by 0.5 degrees Celsius per decade (Dhakal, 2003). However, the country lacks comprehensive report on temperature rise and climate changes. However, there is more general information available on climate change and its impacts. The information lacks at local and specific level regarding the extent and pattern of change in precipitation and temperature, the locations of high or low trend, and pattern of climate variables. These pieces of information are essential for implementing effective measures to help the poor communities to cope and adapt to impacts of climate change.
Nepal is a highly vulnerable country; there are more likely adverse impacts of climate change in the coming days. Therefore, adaptation to climate change must be a priority for the country. However, without understanding the changing climate, adaptation planning will not be effective due to the diverse climatic variation. For effective adaptation planning, specific climate change scenarios and their specific impacts are imperative to understand (Marahatta et al. 2009).
1.1 Statement of the problem
ACA is an important tourism destination and has fragile ecosystem. Mountainous environments are considered sensitive indicators of climate change (Barry 1990; Stone 1992; Beniston 1994). Few case studies exist in the published literature regarding local climate modeling and virtually none regarding the ACA. In order to best assess the expected climate change impacts on a species, ecosystem or natural resource at local level, climate variables and climate change scenarios must be developed on a site-specific scale or local level (Wilby et al, 2001). Therefore, it is important to access the climate change scenario to identify the adaptation options and thereby minimize the potential damage of climate change on the local level.
1.2 Objective of the research
The main objective of the research is to detect the presence of a significant trend in the time series of climatic variables (rainfall and temperatures) in the ACA. Based on this overall objective following specific objectives were developed:
1) Identify and understand the general characteristics pattern and magnitude of climate variability in ACA.
2) Identify increasing and decreasing trends in temperature and precipitation 3) Identify significant monthly and seasonal shift in temperature and precipitation 4) Assess the data for general climate trend in ACA and prepare climate data that can be further used to analyze the climate change in ACA.
2.1 Climate change scenario
Information about global warming and its impact on climate at global scale has been well documented and studied. According to the sources (www.democraticunderground.com), the warming is already affecting world's rainfall patterns, bringing more precipitation to northern Europe, Canada and northern Russia but less to sub-Saharan Africa, southern India and Southeast Asia. The changes have already had significant effects on ecosystems, agriculture and human regions that are sensitive to changes in precipitation. However, there is not much information available about South Asia and even less is known about the...
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