Quantitative Values

Topics: Decision theory, Risk, Bathtub Pages: 4 (1062 words) Published: August 3, 2014
Quantitative Values

Project: Homeowner Master Bathroom Remodel
To incorporate quantitative values of expected value and probability into the risk management plan for my master bathroom remodel project will be a challenge. The homeowner is taking on the task of trying to do much of the remodel work himself. Hence the risk is related to human failure. Since the homeowner does not have extensive experience in some of the remodeling tasks, there is no history that can be used to calculate failure rates so that probabilities can be determined. The use of a Human Error Probabilities (HEP) model will be needed to determine the probabilities of the remodel tasks that are most at risk. The tasks that have been identified most at risk are the plumbing, electrical and window installation. I will use the Delphi approach to develop HEP estimates for the most at risk tasks. The first step is to select a panel consisting of four subject matter experts (SME), a risk analysis and a group facilitator. Two of the four SMEs will have professional experience in bathroom remodeling and the other two will be homeowners that have taken on bathroom remodel projects but do not necessarily do it for a living. This is to help minimize biasing the data since the analysis is going to be used to determine whether the homeowner does the work himself or contracts it out.

After the facilitator introduces each member of the panel and introductions have been made, the risk analysis will present one of the remodel tasks that have been determined risky for the homeowner to perform. For example the installation of the new plumbing fixtures would be discussed by him and he would make the case for developing HEPs for water leaks occurring if the homeowner were to perform the work himself. If possible the risk analyst would then present data on the probability of water leaks occurring when a homeowner performs plumbing tasks themselves.

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The next step would be discussions and presentations...
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