# Probability Decision Analysis

**Topics:**Operations research, Decision theory, Scientific method

**Pages:**5 (547 words)

**Published:**September 18, 2013

COLLEGE OF ARTS AND SCIENCES

COURSE CODE:SQQP 5023

COURSE NAME:DECISION ANALYSIS

LECTURER:DR. SYARIZA ABDUL RAHMAN

email: syariza@uum.edu.my

tel: 04 – 9286975/ 016-4127923

1. COURSE SYNOPSIS

Mathematical tools have been applied for thousands of years; however, the formal study and application of quantitative techniques to practical decision making is largely a product of the twentieth century. Decision analysis refers to a body of techniques that allows a decision-maker to evaluate uncertainty, risk, and multiple objectives decision problems. Among the topics that will be covered in this course are decision theory, forecasting, linear programming, transportation and assignment models, waiting line analysis, simulation, network flow models and project management.

2. LEARNING OUTCOMES

1. To develop a conceptual understanding of commonly applied management science techniques in the context of business problems. 2. To apply the selected management science techniques in the context of business problems. 3. To discuss the assumptions, the advantages and the limitations of each of the management science techniques in solving business related problems.

3. COURSE CONTENTS

|DATE |TITLE |HOURS | |12/05/2012 |Introduction |5 | | |Approaches in Quantitative Modeling | | | |A Historical Overview | | | |The Process of Quantitative Modeling | | | |Review of Probability Concepts | | | |Fundamental Concepts | | | |Bayes’s Theorem | | | |Random Variables & Probability Distribution | | |13/05/2012 |Fundamentals Of Decision Theory 3 hrs |5 | | |An Overview of the Decision Theory | | | |Types of Decision Making Situations | | | |Decision Making Under Risk | | | |Decision Making Under Uncertainty | | | |Decision Trees And Utility Theory 3 hrs | | | |Decision Trees | | | |Probability Values Estimated by Bayesian Analysis | | | |Utility Theory | | | |Forecasting | | | |Selecting a Forecasting Method | | | |Approaches to Forecasting | | | |Qualitative Approaches to Forecasting...

References: Render, B., Stair Jr, R.M., & Hanna, M.E. (2006). Quantitative Analysis for Management (9th Edition), New Jersey: Prentice Hall.

Taylor, W.B. (2004). Introduction to Management Science (8th Edition),New Jersey: Prentice Hall.

Anderson, D.R., Sweeney, D.J. and Williams, T.A. (2000). An Introduction to Management Science: Quantitative Approaches to Decision Making (9th Edition),Cincinnati: South-WesternCollege Publishing.

Lawrence Jr, J.A., & Pasternack, B.A. (2002). Applied Management Science: Modeling, Spreadsheet Analysis, and Communication for Decision Making, New York: John Wiley & Sons Inc.

Hillier, F.S., & Hillier, M.S. (2003). Introduction to Management Science: A Modeling and Case Studies Approach with Spreadsheets.New York: McGraw Hill.

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