My Academic 2013

Topics: Decision making, Decision theory, Decision making software Pages: 6 (958 words) Published: June 24, 2013
A systematic problem solving & decision making method
Continuous Improvement Facilitators November 17, 2006
The New Rational Manager by Charles H. Kepner & Benjamin B. Tregoe Think of a Problem

One that you are currently experiencing in your job
or one that you have experienced in the past.

Write it down.

The Kepner-Tregoe Tool
* Situation Analysis
* Problem Analysis
* Decision Analysis
* Potential Problem (Opportunity) Analysis

Situation Appraisal
(List threats and Opportunities)
* What deviations are occurring?
* What decisions need to be made?
* What plans should be implemented?
* What changes are anticipated?
* What opportunities exist?
* What bothers us about . . . .?

Situation Appraisal
* Separate and Clarify Concerns
* What do we mean by . . . ?
* What exactly is . . . ?
* What else concerns us about . . . ?
* What evidence do we have . . . ?
* What different deviations, decisions, or plans are part of this concern?

Situation Appraisal
* Set Priority
* Which concern should we work on first?
* Consider . . .
* . . . the current impact
* What is the current impact on people, safety, cost, customers/stakeholders, productivity, reputation, etc? * What evidence do you have?
* Which concern is most serious?

Situation Appraisal
* Set Priority
* Consider . . .
* . . . the future impact
* If left unresolved, how and when will the seriousness change? * What evidence do you have?
* Which concern is getting worse quicker?

Situation Appraisal
* Set Priority
* Consider . . .
* . . . the time frame
* What is the deadline? When do we need to start?
* When would resolution become difficult, expensive, impossible, or meaningless? * What evidence do you have?
* Which concern will be the hardest to resolve later?

Planning the Next Steps
* Decision Analysis
* Do we need to simply make a choice?

Decision Analysis
* Clarify the Purpose
* What is the decision?
* What are the WANT objectives?
* What are the MUST objectives?
* What are the relative weights of the objectives?
* Evaluate Alternatives
* What are alternatives to the decision?
* How do the alternatives fit with the WANTS?
* How do the alternatives fit with the MUSTS?

Decision Analysis
* Assess Risks
* What are the adverse consequences?
* Make decision
* What are the best balanced choices?

Planning the Next Steps
* Potential Problem (Opportunity) Analysis
* Do we have an Action or Plan to protect (enhance)?

Potential Problem (Opportunity) Analysis
* Identify Potential Problems (Opportunities)
* What are the potential actions?
* What are the potential problems?
* What are the potential opportunities?
* Identify Likely Causes
* What are the possible causes for the potential problem? * What are the possible causes for the potential opportunity?

Potential Problem (Opportunity) Analysis
* Take Preventative (Promoting) Action
* What actions do we need to take to address (encourage) likely causes? * Plan Contingent (Capitalizing) Action and Set Triggers
* What actions do we need to prepare to reduce (enhance) likely effects? * What triggers do we need to set for contingent (capitalizing) actions? Planning the Next Steps
* What is the Problem?

Problem Analysis
Describe the Problem
* What is the Problem?
* What object (or group of objects) has the deviation? * What deviation does it have?
* What do we see, hear, feel, taste, or smell that tells us there is a deviation? * Then ask - What, Where, When, and to what Extent?

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