Decision Analysis

Topics: Nuclear power, Decision making, Chernobyl disaster Pages: 66 (11782 words) Published: January 17, 2014
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Decision Analysis
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A Multiple-Objective Decision Analysis for Terrorism
Protection: Potassium Iodide Distribution in Nuclear
Incidents
Tianjun Feng, L. Robin Keller,

To cite this article:
Tianjun Feng, L. Robin Keller, (2006) A Multiple-Objective Decision Analysis for Terrorism Protection: Potassium Iodide Distribution in Nuclear Incidents. Decision Analysis 3(2):76-93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/deca.1060.0072 Full terms and conditions of use: http://pubsonline.informs.org/page/terms-and-conditions This article may be used only for the purposes of research, teaching, and/or private study. Commercial use or systematic downloading (by robots or other automatic processes) is prohibited without explicit Publisher approval. For more information, contact permissions@informs.org. The Publisher does not warrant or guarantee the article’s accuracy, completeness, merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or non-infringement. Descriptions of, or references to, products or publications, or inclusion of an advertisement in this article, neither constitutes nor implies a guarantee, endorsement, or support of claims made of that product, publication, or service. Copyright © 2006, INFORMS

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Decision Analysis

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Vol. 3, No. 2, June 2006, pp. 76–93
issn 1545-8490 eissn 1545-8504 06 0302 0076

®

doi 10.1287/deca.1060.0072
© 2006 INFORMS

A Multiple-Objective Decision Analysis for
Terrorism Protection: Potassium Iodide
Distribution in Nuclear Incidents
Tianjun Feng, L. Robin Keller

The Paul Merage School of Business, University of California, Irvine, California 92697-3125 {fengt@uci.edu, lrkeller@uci.edu}

T

his paper presents a multiple-objective decision analysis approach to qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate different potassium iodide (KI) distribution plans for a hypothetical local region. We developed this approach for a U.S. National Research Council committee that was charged with figuring out the best means for protecting people against potential thyroid cancer resulting from the release of radioactive iodine from nuclear incidents occurring due to terrorism or accidents. We first identify an objectives hierarchy and then develop the single-attribute value functions and the weights for the objectives using a swing weight method. The identification of the largest value gaps between the status quo and the ideal situation helps to develop potential KI distribution plans. We then use an additive value function to assess the performance of these new alternatives, with the status quo as a benchmark, by computing their overall values. Finally, sensitivity analysis for the KI problem shows how this approach can create more key insights for the improvement of health and safety decision-making processes.

Key words: multiple-objective decision analysis; terrorism protection; emergency health and safety decisions; potassium iodide (KI); nuclear incident; sensitivity analysis; Excel sliders History: Received on April 29, 2006. Accepted by Robert Clemen and Don Kleinmuntz on July 5, 2006, after 1 revision.

1.

Introduction

of the thyroid, including thyroid cancer, primarily due
to inhalation of contaminated air.
The most serious accident...

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