age restricted technology

Topics: Decision theory, Automotive industry, Decision making software Pages: 38 (5529 words) Published: March 13, 2014
Economic Horizons, September - December 2012, Volume 14, Number 3, 169 - 179 UDC: 33 eISSN 2217-9232

© Faculty of Economics, University of Kragujevac

Review paper
UDC: 658.8.012.2:629.33(497.11) ; 005.521:334.7
doi: 10.5937/ekonhor1203165M

Predrag Mimovic*
Faculty of Economics, University of Kragujevac, Kragujevac, Serbia This paper describes the application of Analytic Network Process (ANP) in the modeling and analysis of various factors and the impact on the forecasting processes in situations when there is a need for the integration of contextual information, which is the result of sudden and unpredictable changes in the environment in which the company operates. The model is applied on a sample in forecasting the sale of a new model automobile Fiat 500 L, and is based on the professional knowledge of experts in automobile market trends, the actual current and projected trends in automobile sale and subjective evaluations of the authors, and in the context of the global economic crisis which significantly affects automobile sale in the world market.

Keywords: sale, forecasting, automotive industry, the analytical network process

JEL Classification: C51, C53, D81,E27, F47

Considering that the global economy operates in
conditions of a high risk and uncertainty, caused by the
global economic crisis, the forecasting of automobile
sale, especially of new models, presents a complex,
multidimensional and multi-criteria problem, which
also requires a methodology of an appropriate level of
The research subject in this paper deals with the
possibility of using the Analytic Network Process
(ANP), as a multi-criteria method for decision support
* Correspondence to: P. Mimovic, Faculty of Economics, University of Kragujevac, Dj. Pucara 3, 34000 Kragujevac, Serbia; e-mail:

in the process of forecasting the sales of a new
automobile model – FIAT 500 L.
The starting hypothesis is that the current projections
and forecasting sales, which have been done by the
FIAT professional-service corporation, can successfully
be corrected by the given estimation using the ANP
demand forecasting model, which, ultimately, should
result in more accurate forecasting.
The aim of the research is to reduce uncertainty
and create the preconditions for forecasting the
optimization process based on the application of the
ANP model through the integration and coordination
of contextual information, which cannot adequately
be incorporated by using the quantitative forecasting
methods (primarily time series). The application of
the ANP forecasting on the example of the automobile


Economic Horizons (2012) 14(3), 169-179

industry could contribute to a be#er understanding of
its functioning in the global environment, especially
in times of a crisis and recession and bearing in mind
their interdependence.
When it comes to the sales forecasting of new
products, the lack of historical information favors the
use of qualitative forecasting methods. The important,
essential advantage of qualitative forecasting methods
in relation to quantitative forecasting methods lies in
their potential to forecast changes that may occur in
demand for a new product, and, implicitly, in the range
of its sale.
Although the ANP model is based on subjective
assessments characterized by a successful application
in many areas of forecasting, the ability to rapidly
incorporate feedback and a possibility of simple
comparison to actual results . The structure of the paper
is organized in the following way: in the second part
which consists of two sections, a review of the literature
concerning the problem of forecasting automobile sale
has been given, along with a brief description of the
processed problems and the used forecast methods,
as well as a review of...

References: Abu-Eisheh, S. A., & Mannering, F. L. (2002). Forecasting
automobile demand for economics in transition: a dynamic
Azis, I. J. (2010). Predicting a Recovery Date from the Economic
Crisis of 2008
Blair, A. R., Mnadelker, G. N., Saaty, T. L., & Whitaker, R. (2010).
Carlson, R. L., & Umble, M. M. (1980). Statistical demand for
automobile and their use for forecasting in an energy crises.
Chang, P-C., Wang, Y-W., & Liu, C-H. (2007). The development
of a weighted evolving fuzzy neural network for PCB sales
Dargay, J., & Gately, D. (1999). Income’s effect on car and vehicle
ownership, worldwide: 1960-2015
Garcia-Ferrar, A., Dell, J. H., & Martin-Arroyon, A. S. (1997).
Gholam-Nezhad H. (1995). The Turning Point in Oil Prices. In
Harris, E. S. (1986). Forecasting automobile output. Federal
Reserve Bank of New York
Jharkharia, S., & Shankar, R. (2007). Selection of logistics
service provider: an analytic network process (ANP)
Kahn, K. (2002). An exploratory investigation of new product
forecasting practices
Karsak, E. E., Sozer, S., & Alptekin, S. E. (2002). Product
planning in quality function deployment using a combined
Kuo, R. (2001). A sales forecasting system based on fuzzy
neural network with initial weights generated by genetic
McAlinden, S. P., Hill, K., & Swicki, B. (2003). Economic
Contribution of Automotive Industry to the US Economy – An
(accessed 20 December 2007).
Meade, L. M., & Presley, A. (2002). R&D project selection
using the analytic network process
Momoh, J. A., & Zhu, J. (2003). Optimal generation scheduling
based on AHP/ANP
Niemira, P. M., & Saaty, T. L. (2004). An Analytic Network
Process model for financial-crisis forecasting
Plache, L. (2011). Auto Sales Forecast 2011. h#p://www.
Romilly, P., Song, H., & Liu, X. (1995). Modeling and forecasting
car ownership in Britain
Saaty, T. L. (2001). Decision Making with Dependence and Feedback:
The Analytic Network Process
Saaty, T. L. (2005). Theory and Applications of the Analytic Network
Process, Decision Making with Benefits, Opportunities, Costs and
Saaty, T., & Kearns, K. (1985). Analytical Planning: The
Organization of Systems
Saaty, T., & Vargas, L. G. (1991). Prediction, Projection and
Sarkis, J. (2003). A strategic decision framework for Green
supply chain management
Thomassey, S., & Fiordaliso, A. (2006). A hybrid sales
Continue Reading

Please join StudyMode to read the full document

You May Also Find These Documents Helpful

  • Essay on An Age of Technology
  • technology in the middle ages Essay
  • Role of Literature in the Age of Technology Research Paper
  • Technology and Modern Age Essay
  • Effects of Modern Age Technology Essay
  • Technology Essay
  • technology Essay
  • the glided age Essay

Become a StudyMode Member

Sign Up - It's Free
X-AGE (67) | The Leader as a Strategist Report | adobe acrobat