age restricted technology

Topics: Decision theory, Automotive industry, Decision making software Pages: 38 (5529 words) Published: March 13, 2014
Economic Horizons, September - December 2012, Volume 14, Number 3, 169 - 179 UDC: 33 eISSN 2217-9232

© Faculty of Economics, University of Kragujevac
www. ekfak.kg.ac.rs

Review paper
UDC: 658.8.012.2:629.33(497.11) ; 005.521:334.7
doi: 10.5937/ekonhor1203165M

APPLICATION OF ANALYTICAL NETWORK PROCESS IN
FORECASTING AUTOMOBILE SALES OF FIAT 500 L
Predrag Mimovic*
Faculty of Economics, University of Kragujevac, Kragujevac, Serbia This paper describes the application of Analytic Network Process (ANP) in the modeling and analysis of various factors and the impact on the forecasting processes in situations when there is a need for the integration of contextual information, which is the result of sudden and unpredictable changes in the environment in which the company operates. The model is applied on a sample in forecasting the sale of a new model automobile Fiat 500 L, and is based on the professional knowledge of experts in automobile market trends, the actual current and projected trends in automobile sale and subjective evaluations of the authors, and in the context of the global economic crisis which significantly affects automobile sale in the world market.

Keywords: sale, forecasting, automotive industry, the analytical network process

JEL Classification: C51, C53, D81,E27, F47

INTRODUCTION
Considering that the global economy operates in
conditions of a high risk and uncertainty, caused by the
global economic crisis, the forecasting of automobile
sale, especially of new models, presents a complex,
multidimensional and multi-criteria problem, which
also requires a methodology of an appropriate level of
complexity.
The research subject in this paper deals with the
possibility of using the Analytic Network Process
(ANP), as a multi-criteria method for decision support
* Correspondence to: P. Mimovic, Faculty of Economics, University of Kragujevac, Dj. Pucara 3, 34000 Kragujevac, Serbia; e-mail: mimovicp@kg.ac.rs

in the process of forecasting the sales of a new
automobile model – FIAT 500 L.
The starting hypothesis is that the current projections
and forecasting sales, which have been done by the
FIAT professional-service corporation, can successfully
be corrected by the given estimation using the ANP
demand forecasting model, which, ultimately, should
result in more accurate forecasting.
The aim of the research is to reduce uncertainty
and create the preconditions for forecasting the
optimization process based on the application of the
ANP model through the integration and coordination
of contextual information, which cannot adequately
be incorporated by using the quantitative forecasting
methods (primarily time series). The application of
the ANP forecasting on the example of the automobile

170

Economic Horizons (2012) 14(3), 169-179

industry could contribute to a be#er understanding of
its functioning in the global environment, especially
in times of a crisis and recession and bearing in mind
their interdependence.
When it comes to the sales forecasting of new
products, the lack of historical information favors the
use of qualitative forecasting methods. The important,
essential advantage of qualitative forecasting methods
in relation to quantitative forecasting methods lies in
their potential to forecast changes that may occur in
demand for a new product, and, implicitly, in the range
of its sale.
Although the ANP model is based on subjective
assessments characterized by a successful application
in many areas of forecasting, the ability to rapidly
incorporate feedback and a possibility of simple
comparison to actual results . The structure of the paper
is organized in the following way: in the second part
which consists of two sections, a review of the literature
concerning the problem of forecasting automobile sale
has been given, along with a brief description of the
processed problems and the used forecast methods,
as well as a review of...

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